• If ODM is to remain politically relevant and morally coherent, it must answer two questions urgently:Will it produce a presidential candidate in 2027 or not? And Is it opposition by conviction or cooperation by convenience?

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) stands at a dangerous crossroads. Once again, the party that branded itself as the voice of resistance, reform, and the ordinary Kenyan is split—not just by ideology, but by power, proximity to the State, and the looming question of 2027.

On one side, the Sifuna–Orengo faction declares loudly: ODM must form government, and ODM must have a presidential candidate. For them, ODM’s DNA is opposition with purpose—organizing, mobilizing, and ultimately seizing power through the ballot.

James Orengo, Siaya Governor and ODM’s ideological custodian, is blunt: ODM cannot join the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). To him and his allies, any political cohabitation with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government is not pragmatism—it is surrender.

Secretary General Edwin Sifuna reinforces this stance, insisting that the much publicized 10 point agenda agreement was never a coalition, only a contract of issues. This wing frames itself as fearless, unwilling to dilute the party’s soul for comfort or compromise.

On the other side lies a quieter, more ambiguous ODM—accused of cozying up to State power, tempted by the perks of proximity to the presidency.

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Critics see this faction as lured by Ruto’s influence, choosing access over agitation, influence over independence. They argue engagement is strategic, but the optics are costly: ODM risks looking like an opposition party that forgot how to oppose.

This fracture raises the most uncomfortable question: Which ODM is the real ODM? Is it Orengo’s defiance, Sifuna’s legal clarity, and Babu Owino’s populist fire—ready to field a presidential candidate in 2027? Or is it a system adjacent party, transactional and flexible, negotiating relevance instead of fighting for dominance?

The danger is not disagreement; ODM has survived internal battles before. The danger is ideological confusion. A party cannot prepare for a presidential race while appearing to prop up the very government it claims it will replace. Voters notice. Supporters feel disoriented. Rivals exploit the ambiguity.

ODM must answer two urgent questions: Will it produce a presidential candidate in 2027? And is it opposition by conviction or cooperation by convenience? The Sifuna–Orengo camp has made its answer clear. The rest of the party must now decide whether to walk that path—or admit that this ODM is no longer the ODM Kenyans thought they knew.

Because in politics, as in branding, when you try to be two things at once, you often end up being neither.

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