After Baba: The Future of ODM and the Road to 2027 Elections

Kenyan former Prime Minister and leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Raila Amolo Odinga was laid to rest on October 19 in Bondo, Kisumu County, following several days of national memorial events.

During a discussion of the Political Oracle titled “2027 Without Baba,” political analyst Dr. Michael Ndonye offered a heartfelt reflection on Raila’s life and enduring impact.

“He was not just another Kenyan,” Dr. Ndonye remarked. “He knew the pain of struggle and always came to save the nation when it was heading to dark places.”

Born on January 7, 1945, in Maseno, Raila had just turned 80 and remained a symbol of political vigor and resilience. Dr. Ndonye traced Raila’s journey from studying mechanical engineering in East Germany to his six-year detention after the 1982 coup attempt—an experience that shaped him into a fearless reformist.

Raila’s political career spanned decades: from serving as Lang’ata MP for over 20 years, to holding cabinet positions in Energy and Roads, and ultimately becoming Kenya’s second Prime Minister in the Grand Coalition Government after the 2007 crisis.

Dr. Ndonye credited Raila with being the heartbeat of Kenya’s democratic reforms, citing his role in ODM and championing the 2010 Constitution.

“Raila probably shaped the presidency more than anyone else—although he never became president himself,” he remarked.

Dr. Ndonye described Raila as a rare blend of activist, diplomat, and politician—a “trinity of leadership” that is seldom found in one individual.

As an activist, Raila was molded by his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s defiance and his own fight for multi-party democracy.

As a diplomat, he reconciled with rivals like presidents Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, and William Ruto, often turning adversaries into allies.

As a politician, he was strategic, adaptable, and deeply connected to the people.

“That trinity was the secret to Raila’s longevity and influence,” Dr. Ndonye said.

According to Dr. Ndonye, Raila’s passing leaves a profound void in Kenya’s political landscape.

“He was not just an opposition leader—he was the heartbeat of Kenya’s political conscience.”

While figures like Rigathi Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Fred Matiang’i remain active, none have yet demonstrated the charisma, following, or philosophical depth to succeed Baba.

Dr. Ndonye likened ODM to a speeding bus whose driver exited in 2021. “Though the bus is still moving, no one knows where it’s headed—but it’s moving very fast,” he warned.

He predicted that ODM may struggle to survive beyond 2027, as Raila’s identity was deeply intertwined with the party’s existence.

Dr. Ndonye recalled Raila’s prophetic words of support for President William Ruto until 2027, suggesting that how Ruto handles Raila’s passing and funeral will shape public perception among Raila’s loyal base.

“He has left without telling them which way,” Dr. Ndonye said. “But one thing is clear—he left behind a voice, and that voice says: support William Ruto until 2027.”

Dr. Ndonye emphasized that leadership within ODM and Luo-Nyanza cannot be inherited—it must be earned.

“Taking up leadership is different. Whoever wants to replace Raila must take up their cross and follow his way—not just his party.”

He stressed that Raila’s legacy was built on struggle, courage, and conviction—qualities that cannot be transferred by appointment.

“There is no kingpin now,” he said. “Luo-Nyanza will have to produce one—someone who will emerge by proving themselves.”

Beyond politics, Dr. Ndonye reminded Kenyans that Raila was a family man whose loved ones deserve comfort and support.

“The best way to honor him is by according him the respect he truly deserves, both in death and in memory.”

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